The share of U.S. total utility-scale power generation from natural gas-fired power plants will rise from 34% in 2018, to 37% in 2019 and 2020, the Energy Information Administration forecasts in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
EIA/STEO forecasts the share of U.S. electric generation from coal will average 25% in 2019, and 22% in 2020, down from 28% in 2018, Kallanish Energy reports.
EIA’s forecast nuclear share of U.S. generation remains at roughly 20% in 2019 and in 2020. Hydropower averages a 7% share of total U.S. generation in the forecast for 2019 and 2020, similar to 2018.
Wind, solar, and other non-hydropower renewables provided almost 10% of U.S. total utility-scale generation in 2018, and EIA expects they will provide more than 10% in 2019, and 12% in 2020.
The latest STEP forecasts total U.S. coal production will fall to 159 million short tons (MMst) in the fourth quarter of 2019, a decline of 34 MMst (17%) from the same period in 2018.
The resulting estimate of U.S. production totals 679 MMst in 2019, which would be a 76 MMst (10%) decline from the 2018 level.
Declining coal demand and related bankruptcies, ownership changes, and sudden mine closures have contributed to a fluctuating production environment in the Western region (largely the Powder River Basin), which produces more than half of the U.S. coal supply.
EIA expects coal production to decline further by 11% in 2020 to 603 MMSt.
This post appeared first on Kallanish Energy News.