As winter sets in and temperatures start to drop, new government data show that natural gas heating will continue to be the most affordable option to keep families warm.
The Energy Information Administration’s Winter Fuels report forecasts that most households in the United States will pay about the same amount on heating as they did last year. While the report predicts a colder winter compared to last year, lower energy prices are expected to offset the difference. Most notably, natural gas will remain the most affordable fuel to heat homes.
EIA found:
The “average price for natural gas for residential consumers in our forecast is four percent less than last winter, resulting in negligible change in winter bills for natural gas in our base case, with forecast expenditures of about $600 per household.”
However, the report shows that winter bills are much more expensive for households that use electricity as their primary heating source. The EIA forecasted that those households would have average expenditures of $1,054 this winter which is up two percent from last year.
For the first time this year, the EIA included data distinguishing space heating from any other uses of natural gas, electricity, propane, and heating oil. Even when looking just at fuel costs for space heating this winter, the EIA forecasted that natural gas will be the cheapest fuel.
The EIA data further deflates the “electrify everything” narrative and is directly contrary to arguments posed by organizations like the Rocky Mountain Institute, a nonprofit organization pushing for the ban of natural gas in buildings, which continues to argue that electrification will lower costs. Not only is natural gas heating more affordable, but natural gas prices have been steadily dropping with the Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot price being 71 percent lower than it was this time two years ago. These price changes translate to lower costs for heating homes.
Still, activists and politicians across the country continue to push for banning or limiting natural gas in homes and businesses, even though these bans have failed to pass legal scrutiny or gain popular support. In fact, the City of Berkeley repealed its natural gas ban after a federal court struck down the ban. Already, nearly half of U.S. states have passed laws that prevent local governments from banning natural gas in buildings. Due to this, activists have attempted to avoid the legislative process by styling bans in technical sounding building efficiency codes instead. For example, in 2023, Washington adopted new building code amendments which would require builders to match the energy efficiency of heat pumps in order to install gas hookups. New York was the first state to pass a ban on natural gas in most new construction. Cities across the country including San Francisco and Seattle have made similar efforts to prevent new natural gas hookups in homes and businesses.
These policy decisions are at odds with the data and disproportionately affect some communities. For 46 percent of households, natural gas remains the primary source of heat. While households in some cities might be able to afford the increased utility bills that come with electric heating, many low-income communities who already bear a much higher energy burden might not.
Not only do bans on gas appliances take money out of people’s pockets each month, but they can also create an overreliance on electricity. Localities that ban new gas appliances might face increased electricity demand and if a blackout were to occur, people are left without a backup for cooking or for heating their homes. The reliability benefits that come with natural gas are essential in electricity generation and in homes.
Bottom Line: Government data confirm that natural gas remains the most affordable way to heat homes. While activists and some politicians across the country work to limit natural gas appliances, the evidence is clear that natural gas remains an important resource to provide reliability and reduce energy bills.
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